Debt virus threat as Italy 'firewall' breached

Concerns are mounting that the sovereign debt crisis that humbled Greece may infect Italy, with far bigger ramifications for Europe and the global economy.

Economists say the "firewall" shielding Italy and Spain from Greece's debt woes has been breached. Investors are increasingly reluctant to buy debt from the nations.

If a new chapter of the financial crisis begins, Australia's banks are likely to be mired, analysts say.

The benchmark ASX 200 sharemarket fell 1.9 per cent yesterday to 4495.40 and has fallen almost 3.5 per cent, or 160 points, in two days.

Shares in investment bank Macquarie Group tumbled more than 6 per cent to $28.22 - their lowest close in more than two years.

JP Morgan economist Stephen Walters, who'd forecast a rate rise in August, said the Reserve Bank was now likely to delay it until November. It was likely to consider confusion over the carbon tax's impact and National Australia Bank research yesterday revealing a slide in business confidence.

"RBA officials will not hike while the bad news is accumulating, even if they retain concerns about the medium-term inflation outlook," he said.

AMP Capital Investors chief economist Shane Oliver said the consequences of debt default by Italy, which accounts for 17 per cent of the eurozone economy, would be grave.

"Any seizing up (of lending) would limit the demand for Chinese goods. This would in turn affect Australia," he said.

On Friday, ratings agencies raised concerns over Italy's ability to finance 1.6 trillion in debt.

Yields on the Italian Government's 10-year bonds hit a decade high of 5.93 per cent yesterday, approaching the 7 per cent many analysts consider unsustainable. Yields climb when investors believe there is more risk.

"Italian bond yields have been stuck just below 5 per cent for six months," Mr Oliver said. "There was an argument they had built a firewall around Spain and Italy. They have now burst through that firewall."

Spanish 10-year bond yields were at 6.25 per cent.

RBS Morgans director Bill Chatterton said market "indigestion" continued over the carbon tax and poor jobs data from the United States that showed unemployment had increased to 9.2 per cent in June.

WHAT ARE BONDS?

They are issued by governments when they borrow money; bondholders are paid in interest. Bond prices fluctuate in the market, affecting their interest yield.

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